FOMC Statement(2018年5月2日)

昨夜、米連邦準備制度理事会(FRB)による米連邦公開市場委員会(FOMC)が行われ、声明が公表されました。

FOMC Statement

相場に限らず研究の基本は「比較分析」です。頭の悪い我々が理屈を理解するまでに一生が終わってしそうなので、頭で考える前に目で見てわかるよにならないといけません。

私が考えるに、相場の研究で大切なことは1つだけ。

目で見て比較すること。

例えば、チャートで過去の値動きと比較することや、相関性の高い金融商品の値動きと比較することもそうだ。とにかく無い頭で考えるよりも前に、目で見て判断できることが大事だと思う。

その為には何かと比較するのが一番わかり易いから。

FOMCの政策も同じです。

前回の会合から何がどう変化したのかがわかるので、比較分析は欠かしてはいけないと思う。

ということで、前回2018年3月21日FOMC声明と今回2018年5月2日の声明の相違点を確認しておきましょう。

日本語ではわかり難いですが、単語や文言の変更に意味があるのがFOMCですので、この作業は必須です。私のFOMCの声明比較歴は大学院の修士時代からで、もうかれこれ25年もFOMCの議事録見てることになります。ここまでキャリアがあると、ある程度この声明からFOMCが誘導したい方向性はわかるようになります。

FOMC声明全文比較(2018年3月21日及び2018年5月2日)

2018321FOMC声明

 景気・物価の現状

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth rates of household spending and business fixed investment have moderated from their strong fourth-quarter readings. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

景気・物価の見通し

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months. The Committee expects that,  with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up in coming months and to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

 金融政策(FF金利誘導目標)

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

投票結果

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams. 

201852FOMC声明

景気・物価の現状

Information received since the  Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

景気・物価の見通し

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

 

 

金融政策(FF金利誘導目標)

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

 

投票結果

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.

 

左側が前回2018年3月21日のFOMC声明、右側が今回2018年5月2日のFOMC声明。左側の黄色部分が今回文言変更が行われた箇所で、今回の太字・下線部分になります。

なお、FOMC声明の全文を英語で読めないという言語音痴の方は、ロイターがFOMC声明の全文を日本語で提供しているので、そちらを見ながら同じ作業をしてみてください。

ロイター, FOMC声明全文

FOMC声明要点:

・労働市場は引き続き力強い

・経済活動は緩やかなペースで拡大

・雇用の伸びはこの数カ月平均して力強い

・失業率は低水準のまま

・家計支出の伸びは昨年第4四半期に比べ和らいでいる

・企業設備投資は力強い伸びに

・インフレ、コア・インフレ共にが中期目標の目標に近づいた

・インフレ調整指標は低水準のまま

・中長期的なインフレ期待の指標ほぼ変わらず

・米経済は一段の緩やかな利上げを正当化

・米経済の見通しリスクはほぼ均衡

・金融政策は依然として緩和的なまま

・FFレートの誘導目標は、1.50%-1.75%に据え置き

日本時間の昨日5月2日朝の時点で、投資家やスタッフには以下のメッセージを入れました。

『日本のゴールデン・ウィークであること、FOMCを控えてドル高・円安に戻されていますが、個人的にはそう長続きはしないと思っています。時期的な円安の動きもありますが、金利差でドル買いな動きを見せていても、金利上昇はNY株価へネガティブインパクトになるので、大きな円安トレンドはないと思います。

FOMCの声明が今夜(深夜)に控えており、基本的には①今回の会合での利上げはなく、②次回6月の会合での利上げが行われるかどうか、③年3回の利上げから年4回へ追加利上げが行われるかどうか、あたりに関する文面が盛り込まれるかどうかが焦点となっております。

基本的にはFOMCの声明まではドル円は上げ基調の可能性がありますが、今回もBuy the rumor, Sell the fact.を想定しております。』

結果だけ見ると以下の通り。

①今回の会合での利上げはなく ➡ ない
②次回6月の会合での利上げが行われるかどうか ➡ 示唆された
③年3回の利上げから年4回へ追加利上げが行われるかどうか ➡ 示唆されなかった

以上は、小学生でもわかる基本レベルで、100%想定の範囲内。

利上げに対する博士の読み:

年4回の利上げを想定する方々がNYの市場参加者には多いですが、米景気、米財政収支、米国債の需給等を考慮すると、市場が既に織り込み済の年3回を超える利上げは、ドル高(輸出減少に伴う米貿易収支・経常収支の赤字拡大)、米債安(=米債利回りの上昇・金利上昇)自、株安(金利上昇により企業の資金調達コストが上昇し業績が悪化する等)を招き、米トランプ政権や米FRB自らの絞めかねないので、僕は年3回からの変更は無いと思っています。

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